Originally Posted by
Steepclimb
Loss of control after inadvertent or otherwise entry into IMC with a subsequent overstress on attempted recovery. It's so easy to find yourself in a spiral dive after being distracted by the jumpers. Don't ask me how I know.
(Ice)
A stall, spin on the run in is possible but most likely a few people would have got out in that case. Besides the Airvan has a docile stall even with everyone crowding the exit.
There is some quite story-telling data available from webtrak, where you can find the SSR track data from this flight.
WX is not 100% sure about cloud layers but FEW at around 5K feet, BKN at around 8K feet and OVC at 10K. A METAR close after says Towering Cumulus.
From the accident videos a solid layer can be seen.
The webtrak data converted to airspeeds via winds and TAS shows IAS around 60knots for quite some time before departure from controlled flight. During the last 30s before it went south the aircraft climbed further despite being on what seems to be a drop final @ altitude and being cleared for drop and descend.
After this there is a very sharp around 150 degree course change to the left and simultanous steep descend and speed increase. The dive angle is around 60 degrees( horisontal distance / vertical distance) and after the sharp 150 degree left there is a vide left turn( almost straight) still with 60 degree dive angle and speed increasing. The ROD is 16000fpm or more.
This aircraft had Mode S and at around 2300m altitude( webtrak shows altitude in meters) all horisontal speed disapears and the heading starts rotating until data is lost. There is also a loss in vertical speed and forward speed.
This, together with the withdrawal of the AD groundning the Ga-8 points in the direction of stalling, inadvertant IMC, high speed dive and overstressing the aircraft when getting visual with ground beneath clouds.