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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 16:08
  #9107 (permalink)  
ORAC
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 9,969
The (likely) election of Johnson as Tory party leader will simply reverse the situation, so that the Tory "awkward squad" will be current or former remainers rather than leavers - the arithmetic in the House of Commons hasn't changed one iota, though it might become worse for the Tories on Thursday, and potentially yet worse a few months down the line of the (honorable) member for Dover gets his collar felt.
The difference being Boris doesn't have to get any legislation passed at all, just prevent any.

In this he will be aided by the fact that, reported on Sky News this morning, that the first tactic to be employed is that the government will bring no primary legislation forward between parliament reconvening on 6th Sept and 31st October, meaning no votes to add amendments can be added and passed.

This is further supported by the fact that any, if the Speaker bends the rules to allow a private members bill to be introduced that affects the Royal Prerogative (as any bill to delay or repeal A50 would), the government can refuse to provide Royal Consent, killing it before 3rd reading.

The only means parliament has to stop a government set on letting the clock run down is to use a vote of no confidence to defeat the government and install another. The deadline for such a vote to be placed in the House to permit a general election and new government before 31st October is Thursday 24th July - in 3 days time.

Post that date the only route left is both to defeat the current government in such a vote, negotiate a deal between the opposition parties and decide on a joint coalition leader, then have Boris resign as acting PM and the new leader appointed by ER*, before holding a vote of confidence before the 14 day window expires. if they fail to do then parliament will automatically prorogue and an election be called, during which Brexit will occur. Is it a chance they would take and bring Brexit down on their heads - and be held to blame?

So the cards are very much in the governments favour.

*Because the wording of the relevant section in the Fixed Term Parliament Act states the wording for the motion calling the vote must be "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government".
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