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Old 10th Jul 2019, 23:37
  #25 (permalink)  
tartare
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,319
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Well my two cents worth.
Blind Freddy can see what's coming.
Just 6000 kms to the north of Australia sits a nation of 1.1bn people with an economy that will be double the size of the US by mid century.
It is nuclear armed, communist run, led by a man who has declared himself ruler for life.
He's 66 now - so we can assume he's going to be around for another 20-30 years.
It's military is rapidly modernising, it is spreading influence throughout Australian politics and academia, threatening the Chinese diaspora, hacking current IT infrastructure and attempting to embed itself in IT future infrastructure.
It's just effectively annexed the South China Sea.
Meanwhile there is every sign that an isolationist, populist and erratic US president will not only be re-elected, but that his ideas will be used by cynical politicians that follow him.
And we are relying on the United States to protect us?
Will we be invaded?
Probably not.
Will we be attacked - or have our nearby interests attacked or threatened and/or annexed - more likely.
Would the US or the UK, or France come to our aid - in my view - not a chance in hell.
All of the above regarding China says both capability - and more importantly - possible intent.
I think what will happen - is that the lucky country (read dumb luck) will continue arguing and hoping for the best, only to wake up in 20 years time and find that it is utterly dictated to by a bellicose and expansionist China.
These things happen very slowly over long periods of time.
And the Australian military is completely wrongly configured to deal with the sorts of threats we'll face.
When you read White's book, it's clear that somewhere in Canberra there are studies that have been done and are being continuously updated on how long it would take for Australia to acquire nuclear weapons.
Firms like Silex have developed some very interesting technology.
I only hope that someone has the foresight to take the threat seriously, and the wick to start acting - but I doubt it.
tartare is offline