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Old 30th Jun 2019, 10:03
  #20 (permalink)  
rotorspeed
 
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Strange one here. Be key to know what runway they were using and approach they were on. Not familiar with KBRD but seems there is an ILS on 23 and 34, and an RNAV on 05. N11NM was a 109S, so not the SP with 4 axis autopilot, so it would have been able to fully couple to an ILS but not, I suspect, the RNAV on 05. Given NE wind you'd ideally have chosen 05, but assuming it doesn't have an ILS and given the minimal 3kt tailwind, and advantage of having the terminal buildings at the end of the roll out with presumably some lighting, I'd have taken 23. Maybe 34 with a light crosswind. Either way, both have long 7000ft runways, so speed over the threshold not a big deal.

Looks like the pilot had 200ft and 1/4M (400m) at the time of the accident - not great, and may have been under legal limits (though before and after vis was better) - but assuming the runway lighting was fully serviceable and on, that should not have prevented a successful approach to the runway. Which is what I suspect he achieved. On the 109S the radalt will level at circa 50ft at the end of the approach with the ILS coupling keeping it over the runway, especially with no crosswind. And with say an approach speed of 100kts, stability is good, and with 7000ft you should have plenty of distance to slow it down to taxi speed without big pitch/power changes.

The wreckage appears to be about 200m SW of the 23 touchdown point, 60m south of the runway. It also shows no forward speed, and a pretty level vertical impact. So it really doesn't look like it crashed from continued descent on the ILS23 in virtually nil vis until it impacted the ground - that would have streaked it along with far more damage from surely at least 50 kts forward speed, even after 200m. In bad weather, it's unlikely you'd try and uncouple and flare enough to lose all airspeed just 200m after the threshold, especially when the terminal is over a mile ahead.

It seems to me a possible scenario is that the pilot completed whatever approach he was on, got visual and was at taxi speed, but then perhaps lost visual references in denser fog, and with minimal airspeed couldn't control the aircraft which started to go out of control so he dumped the lever to try and get back visual - but hit the ground before he did. But there again once he'd got visual over the runway you'd have thought he'd have run it on, given wheels, and been able to relax for the first time in a while, and work out his ground taxi route to wherever. But amongst the puzzles is why he actually crashed at the location he did.










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