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Boeing 737 MAX Return-To-Service Path Taking Shape
Sean Broderick | Aviation Daily June 16,2019
As the 53rd Paris Air Show opens, industry remains in the dark about when the Boeing 737 MAX fleet will be cleared to fly again. But there are signs that Boeingis nearing the next key milestones on an increasingly emerging path to get the grounded fleet airborne.
The manufacturer is working through questions posed by FAA, an independent technical advisory board and its own experts about the updated maneuvering characteristics augmentation system (MCAS) software it is developing. Issues are being validated on the MAX e-cab engineering flight simulator, and a source with knowledge of the work tells Aviation Week that the e-cab sessions could wrap up within days.
Once the simulation work is done, the stage should be set for a certification flight by FAA pilots. The flight is not expected to take place this week, the source said, but is likely to happen in June.
The flight sets the stage for FAA to produce a key report for Boeing that the manufacturer must include in its final MCAS update package submission to the agency. Preparing the report will take at least a week, a source familiar with the process tells Aviation Week.
Once the FAA has Boeing’s package, the agency is expected to review it for several weeks. FAA’s scrutiny will not focus on details such as software code, but rather ensuring regulatory compliance. While the agency and Boeing have been analyzing Boeing’s MCAS changes to help avoid any last-minute surprises, the agency's final-package review "will be more than a simple rubber-stamping exercise," the second source explains.
Boeing’s package also will include training elements that meet FAA’s requirements. The agency is still reviewing comments on draft training standards made public in April, and must finalize those standards before Boeing can wrap up its training program. A key question is how simulator training on the MCAS’s operation and related failure scenarios will be integrated into the updated 737 instruction. U.S. pilot groups representing pilots at MAX operators American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines support adding simulator sessions, but have signaled that they can be part of recurrent training, instead of mandatory steps that must take place before the fleet returns to service. The baseline training on the MCAS should be very detailed, the pilots emphasize, and must include system functionality descriptions and videos that walk the crews through failure scenarios and related procedures.
Once the FAA approves Boeing’s MCAS package and training, it will issue an airworthiness directive mandating installation of the software update. That would clear the way for the 72 MAXs operated by the three U.S. carriers to fly again. Estimates vary, but airlines are expected to need up to a month to re-integrate their aircraft, including the time needed to remove them from storage.
CFM International Executive VP Allen Paxson, speaking to reporters on the eve of the Air Show, projected that engine-specific return-to-service work on the fleet’s Leap-1Bs would take about two days per aircraft. But each airline is different, and CFM’s dedicated teams are preparing for myriad approaches that meet specific customer needs.
“Some customers may need their aircraft right away, while others may have leased aircraft and want to finish the leases,” he says.
Southwest and American—which operate 34 and 24 MAXs, respectively--have removed the aircraft from their flight schedules through early September, which suggests that FAA’s all-clear would need to come by Aug. 1 or so to align with their current plans.
Outside of the U.S., many questions remain. The European Aviation Safety Agency is conducting its own review of the MAX, and other regulators are expected to supplement the FAA’s work with their own analysis. This could set the stage for a phased return to service over several months. While a lack of consensus could harm public perception of the MAX’s safety, the fleet’s gradual re-integration could help Boeing and suppliers by allowing them to prioritize resources. The nearly 390 grounded MAXs are stored at 92 airports, and Boeing has 120 more MAXs built but not delivered that it is storing at several more locations.
The MAX fleet was grounded in mid-March when regulators detected similarities in two fatal MAX accidents—Lion Air Fight 610 in October and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 on March 10—within five months. The MCAS, which provides automatic horizontal stabilizer inputs to enhance handling characteristics in certain flight profiles, was quickly identified as a contributor to both accident sequences. Boeing’s MCAS changes focus on improving its reliability and making it easier for pilots to over-ride.