For example, despite the recent takeover offer at a 67-per-cent premium, the company’s share price is still only up 25 per cent over the past five years compared to the near 400-per-cent gain by Air Canada. As a side note, Transat’s return profile looks an awful lot like WestJet’s, as it, too, is only up 38 per cent over the same period.
Except that neither WestJet nor Air Transat were recovering from bankruptcy during the same five year period.
Air Canada has done very well for itself through its restructuring, but for analysts to try and say this somehow hints that AC knows something WJ and AT don't is leading people down the wrong garden path. They've simply returned to profitability, and that's what the 400% increase is for - returning AC stock to the levels where it should be for a national carrier.
Adjusted for size and market share, I don't think the WJ and AT stock was doing that poorly (they are airline stocks after all!). I doubt in a stable 5-year environment where AC was not recovering from bankruptcy protection, where WJ was not about to be purchased by Onex, and where AT was not in buyout talks, that those three stocks would not have "awfully" similar rates of return.