Originally Posted by
krismiler
A few tweaks here and there and the A320 can easily go another 20 years, by then technology will have improved to the extent that it will be worth incorporating the advances in an all new design which will probably be all composite and use half the fuel of the present aircraft.
OK, but I'm still struggling to understand why you should say there have been very few developments in the last 20 years, but there will be loads in the next 20. I'd have said that there's been slow, but consistent technological progress and it's likely to continue at pretty much the same rate.
A brand new design today could offer some small improvements over the A320 but it's doubtful that there would be the massive leap ahead which would be needed to justify the massive cost of a brand new aircraft and the necessary price increment over the A320.
The economics of a 737 replacement are a different story, I think you're right about that. Even without the aircraft's current problems, Boeing are between a rock and a hard place. If they try to squeeze even another decade out of the 737, Airbus will eat their lunch.