PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - F-35 Cancelled, then what ?
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Old 4th Apr 2019, 16:19
  #11781 (permalink)  
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Zurich
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
In the last five or so years, and this is directly related to the "coup" and the reaction to it, the intelligensia in Turkey has come under political attack by Erdogan's government: educators, etc. This is the kind of thing that can (though may not) lead to a brain drain wherein that core of any modern / industrial society may begin to migrate. Has that happened to a damaging extent? Unclear at this time, and it hopefully won't.
Erdogan didn't come from nowhere. Turkey or rather the Ottoman Empire was a powerful state in the Middle East. They fought twelve wars with Russia alone (6-3 to Russia with three ties). They crushed Syrians, Persians, Arabs, Brits. But after Attaturk reforms Turkey became more peaceful and many people thought that some other countries took advantage. So Erdogan's ideas of "more Turkey" were initially met with a lot of long-supressed patriotism. He later lost a lot of that support, particularly in scientific and legal communities. But I definitely don't see any brain drain from Turkey, other than the usual "better life" seekers.

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
We see a bit of the Venezuelan brain drain where I live, as people have arrived from there over the past five years. The Brain Drain coming out of Mexico and into Texas has been happening for decades. A good number of my neighbors and friends are either related to, or are, educated people (many of them are graduates of the university in Monterry) who cannot find opportunity in their home country. So they come here.
No idea where you live and I definitely can't say anything about Venezuela or Mexico. I suspect that political instability and drug wars respectively drive a lot of people out of the country. "And some of them are good people" (c).

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
As to the "need" for Turkey to be part of the F-35: we have plenty of allies, and that "plan" preceded the Erdogan government showing up. If they become politically unreliable, a deal can be made with someone else. (I suspect that UK industry would not mind a plus up in terms of engineering/manitenance business, for one). What I think was the attraction of Turkey was cost/burdened hour, or the perception of lower labor costs.
Turkey is chepER not cheap. I'll use shipbuilding as an example again. Turkey is cheaper than, say, Germany or Norway, but much more technologically advanced than, for example, China or Poland. That's their strong part. I don't think, however, that they were chosen because of their cheaper labor. Turkey is the key partner in the NATO. Turkey leaves, and Germany will follow. And after that, keeping France and Spain will be nye on impossible. Again, maybe dismantling NATO is the purpose of these shenannigans, who knows.

You (I suppose you mean the US?) have other allies that can take over that work, but how much will it cost to transfer the production of something as complicated as the wingbox to another country? My guess is, hundreds of millions. Not to mention it will take a lot of time to get this done and reroute all logistics. It may push the program back years. I just don't think this project will survive such a blow.

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
I agree with you that the longer term plan for the F-35 has run into Erdogan's choosing to change course for Turkey, and the US reacting to that. Where I disagree is your implication that the Pentagon is acting in isolation. No, it isn't. This whole mess is a part of the political continuum. Politics never ends; there is no stop in play in politics.
I never said Pentagon is acting in isolation. On the contrary, Pentagon is trying to distance itself from the political aspects of their decision. But it seems that their goal is to bury this project. I don't think they want the F-35 anymore. They'd much rather redirect resources (and purchase power) towards unmanned fighters. I just don't see any other reason for this horns-in-the-ground standoff with S-400.

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
As to the skunk works and the "one size fits all" - One Size Fits All was a Congressional Mandate.
I didn't know that. My understanding was that Lockheed proposed this idea. Very interesting. If it was the Congressional Mandate, then it was a stupid one. One size fits all NEVER works. And if this same project is any indication, it would be much cheaper and faster to develop three different planes by three different manufacturers. They could've given the F-35A to Boeing, F-35B (is that the vertical liftoff?) to Lockheed, and F-35C to EADS+BAE. THAT would be a great political and technological move.
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