In a 40+ year flying career, an incident or accident can happen at any time - the odds that somebody’s ‘Sully’ moment strikes in the first year or two of gaining those first couple of thousand hours is relatively low. While that is a good thing, it can also cloud the argument over the value of experience.
An aircraft with a couple hundred people in the back is a poor place to be spending time gaining experience to prepare for one's Sully moment... I think most of the travelling public would like to think that the guys in the front are ALREADY experienced enough to be ready for that moment...
Having said that, humility is a good thing and avoiding the hazardous attitudes associated with complacency is an ongoing challenge for the experienced.