Air transport 7,304; Commercial 5,091; Commercial (CASA EX25/18)a 4,303; Private 9,004
Assuming ATPL holders come from the ranks of CPL holders, this means that there are only 5000 potential future ATPL holders out there. 30% fewer then at the moment.
What is the average age of ATPL holders, almost certainly older then CPL holders but are we facing a bulge of retirements in a short time period which would reduce the numbers even further ?
How many of the CPL holders are close to obtaining the ATPL already with exams passed and a couple of hundred hours to go, compared to new licence and little experience ?
If most ATPL holders were 30 years old and most CPL holders were six months away from getting a higher ticket then things aren't so bad.
If there is going to be a large number of older pilots retiring over a short time period and few experienced younger pilots moving through the ranks, there could be the problem of a yawning gap in between the crusty old timers and the 200 hour wonders.