Thread: Flybe-9
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Old 28th Mar 2019, 17:09
  #1844 (permalink)  
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Ireland
Posts: 1,609
Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Question is if these Cobalt (for GCI) and Jet Airways (IOM) slots will be available in winter as well? Or do new routes get preferential treatment when it comes to allocating unused slots? If not, quite surprising that BE has been able to snap up the slots for both routes, given that there will be long queue of airlines waiting for slots.
Ok, so here are some of the elements.
  • Jet Airways is stopping 9W115/116 (DEL-LHR) from the start of the summer season, i.e. Sunday March 31.
  • Business Traveller magazine says "it is believed the slots for 9W115/116 were owned by Delta/Virgin Atlantic."
  • But ACL's slot trades website lists a slot transfer from Jet Airways to Delta, filed on 26 March. The actual slot swap request form is below. It seems that the slot is being transferred to Delta for a DTW (Detroit) flight... but on a 78-seater Q400 That'd be a long flight.
So the best theory I have is that Delta got the slots from Jet Airways last week (perhaps at shorter notice than expected given Jet's worsening financial troubles - or if they are originally Delta slots, perhaps Delta called them back rather than taking the risk of losing them due to Jet Airways failing and the slots not being operated under the 80/20 rule and being caught up in some sort of bankruptcy proceeding) and then Delta called in flybe to babysit them for the summer season (either because Delta didn't have a spare aircraft at short notice, or more likely because a long-haul flight typically needs many months of forward bookings to have a chance of profitability).

The slots need to be operated 80% of the time to keep them (80/20 rule).

The summer season is about 7 months (let's say 210 days) so 80% is 168 days.

They start the babysitting on 21 April because that makes approximately 189 days (90% of 210) so leaves a bit of leeway (10%) for other cancellations during the rest of the season, while also not flying with ~0% load factors for the first couple of weeks.

Other theories?

Cyrano is offline