Originally Posted by
Ian W
Systems in all modern aircraft will eventually hand the bag of bolts to the pilot if they cannot make sense of what is happening or there is some occurrence they have not been programmed to respond to. This is because it is cheaper to develop systems that deal with the monotonous tasks and hand non-routine/non-nominal to the pilots (you call it a trick in the safety case book, it is in fact standard practice). It is now becoming obvious as you state above that the assumption that the pilot can handle things is not a safe assumption. For this reason systems are being programmed that are capable of handling the non-routine that the pilots can no longer be expected to handle. These are expensive systems to create as they are safety critical and the certification is long and expensive. However, flight crew are expensive too - so more and more aircraft systems are being designed that handle the majority of non-nominal cases. These systems are counter productive in that the flight crew now get even less hands on time and when they do get it their lack of currency shows - so back around the loop building software that will cope with more non-nominal events.
Eventually, the probability of the pilot being needed AND being capable of solving the problems will pass a point where the safety case can be met more successfully by automation. That point is closer than people would think. As soon as that point is reached AND the lifecycle costs of generating and flying operationally with the certified software is less than the cost of employing pilots, autonomous aircraft will become more widespread than they are now.
Alternatively you can see a situation developing where hand flying becomes increasingly rare and the the 'bag of bolts' comes as an increasingly great surprise to the pilots. increasingly and despite advances in the last few years the autopilot is unable to provide the pilots with either explanation or monitoring / assistance around what just dropped in their laps . .