Well for all hype about market retrenchment there seems little sign of it happening on the ground, the Canary Island base closures don’t happen until October/November, PMI happens next month, but in the main the flights are run in reverse, the US bases of PVD & SWF were no more than a large cupboard a copier/scanner and a kettle that no one used.
There are no signs of flight deck redundancy with most being redeployed to other bases/fleets LGW crew numbers will increase and a two year pay deal with 0% this year and 5% or the higher of RPI next year signed off with some tweaks to working patterns 5 on 4 off being the main one agreed. Plenty of people leaving of course, in the main to the benefit of BA, Virgin and Jet2, the general view is that recruitment will start again soon simply because not all can or will move base, but these will be a slow leak of people, going to FR and getting offered the Russian front means you might as well hang in at Norwegian until something closer to home comes up.
The general view is that it was IAG who put the bid in, they know the game and are utterly ruthless, knowing that Norwegian couldn’t go to the market to raise capital during the agreed bid process thus dragging out to the point that Norwegian might collapse, which would suit the BA part of IAG just as well as acquiring the airline and cost less.
Norwegian have learnt that lesson the hard way, few doubt another bid won’t turn up this year, IAG would likely then bid again especially if it was Virgin (Delta) or Lufthansa, in that outcome IAG would have to pay more.
Off course Norwegian has to get through the winter & Brexit, but even that might be over in the next 10 days or at least the fear of no deal and that will drive booking and market confidence
Norwegian will still take delivery of 5 new Dream liners this year (two delivered already) taking its fleet to 37 and another 16 B738 MAX aircraft which will replace older NG’s almost one for one.
The rights issue is fully underwritten and current shareholders can buy at half the current market price so they shouldn’t have to fall back on the underwriter
The fog of doubt should lift by May/June if it can get that far....
Last edited by EIFFS; 2nd Mar 2019 at 09:35.