Originally Posted by
dragon man
And if he can’t provide them can I assume you will to back up share buybacks over aircraft purchases?
No you can't assume that. Share buy-backs, all approved by the shareholder appointed board, don't affect the question of whether the capital investment decision in new aircraft stacks up. I think you could safely use the cancellation of the remaining A380s as evidence that capital investment in such aircraft and their associated cost-base (purchase and ongoing) clearly does not stack up.
What you can safely assume, if Rated can't provide these numbers, is that he has no quantitative basis on which to base his claims. If he can produce a fully developed and accurate 20+ financial year investment proposition then I'll happily look at it. It will have to include revenue modelling, capital purchase costs, cost of capital modelling, a network by financial year, labour cost assumptions, maintenance assumptions, FX, tax and depreciation schedule assumptions. All of this will have to clear an appropriately set commercial hurdle rate for the economic cycle of the aircraft. Why? Because that is how investment decisions in the real (non-pprune) world are made.
Anyone can point out that higher EBIT and margin would've been made with a newer fleet if you ignore acquisition cost of such a fleet. That's axiomatic and my primary school kid could probably tell you that. But that isn't 'analysis' anywhere near the required level to be passed off as meaningful.