Originally Posted by
DC3 Dave
In the last three months of operation the route averaged around 5,500 pax. The best month on the route achieved 6,873 pax, which is not that far from Loganair filling each and every aircraft for a month. And then add on those traveling to and from Stornoway.
There are a couple of subscription-based online tools out there, aimed at airports, airlines and industry analysts, which estimate route yields based on sampling available fares over a period of time and making assumptions about the booking profiles. Their results are by no means 100% accurate but the fact that a good number of subscribers continue to pay their not insubstantial fees suggests that they are not entirely useless either.
One of the well-established such tools estimates that during 2018 the average one-way yield between GLA and SEN was a bit shy of £30. (This isn't precise - maybe in reality it was £25, maybe it was £35, though only Stobart/flybe knows, but based on that imprecise data I'd bet that it wasn't £50!). Unfortunately even if Loganair fills every seat on every flight at that price, they won't come close to making money. Fuel alone for the sector is likely to be over £1000 (or £20/seat) and nav charges will be over £600 (£12/seat). So they will need to achieve far better yields, and the jet product will certainly help those yields, but I don't know if it'll be enough. I wish them well, I really do (especially for the Stornoway-London link, which as
01475 says would be transformative for the local economy), but I wouldn't be betting on the profitability of these routes. If in a year's time I am proven wrong, I'll be happy to eat humble pie.