Originally Posted by
Luc Lion
TAF and METAR for Cardiff and Jersey were:
EGFF 211644Z 2116/2212 22012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 2116/2120 7000 -RA TEMPO
2120/2124 23016G26KT 6000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2120/2124 27020G30KT 4000 RA
BKN006 BECMG 2121/2124 28012KT TEMPO 2208/2212 6000 SHRA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO
2208/2210 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2210/2212 SHRA TSGS BKN008
EGFF 211820Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 -RA BKN021 OVC034 07/05 Q1014
EGFF 211850Z AUTO 23012KT 9999 -RA BKN020 BKN026 OVC045 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211920Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 BKN033 BKN044 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211950Z AUTO 22013KT 9999 BKN033 07/05 Q1012
EGFF 212020Z AUTO 22012KT 9999 SCT026 BKN034 07/05 Q1011
EGFF 212050Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 BKN023/// BKN039/// //////TCU 07/05 Q1010
EGFF 212120Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 -RA SCT024 BKN033 BKN040 07/05 Q1009
EGFF 212150Z AUTO 21012KT 6000 -RA BKN020/// OVC026/// //////TCU 07/06 Q1008
EGJJ 211707Z 2118/2203 20010KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030 TEMPO 2118/2124 -RA BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 2118/2121 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 2121/2123 22020KT BECMG 2202/2203
31017KT NSW SCT015
EGJJ 211820Z 22010KT 9999 SCT014 SCT025 BKN040 06/04 Q1019
EGJJ 211850Z 22011KT 9999 FEW018 SCT021 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211920Z 22011KT 9999 FEW016 SCT018 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211950Z 22012KT 9999 FEW018 SCT020 06/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212020Z 22013KT 9999 R26/1400 SCT014 07/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212050Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1200 R26/1200 BR SCT014/// SCT018/// BKN033///
07/05 Q1016
EGJJ 212120Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1400 FEW013/// OVC028/// 07/05 Q1016 RERA
EGJJ 212150Z AUTO 21015KT 9999 1400 FEW014/// SCT017/// BKN032/// 07/05 Q1015
RERA
This set of weather data, available before the flight SCREAMS to any sane PPL, even with IMC and Night ratings, and current, and experienced etc etc "Don't Go!" Or at least it does to me. My ex CFI friend says to me that my competence exceeds my confidence and that is the way I like it! If and I say if I had been slightly tempted to do this journey at this time, I would have routed via SAM in clear air, and had a get out of jail free option there. Alas the pilot had a chance to change his mind when overflying Guernsey and didn't take it. In general I like a direct routing but in weather like this, it's best to chunk the journey into safe sectors and be prepared to abandon at any time. I have, of course, had get home-itis in my flying career but this accident reminds us that we all must have a the willingness to "just say NO".
Yes, I am all in agreement with everyone talking about the legalities or lack thereof in this journey but let's learn from this and examine ourselves whether flying privately or commercially.... If you have any nagging hesitancy about any element of a flight, stay on the ground!! And stay on the right side of the competence Vs confidence equation, it's served me well and I intend for it to continue to keep me and my friends alive a long while yet.