Originally Posted by
Bula
You guys crack me up.
Lets run some “whole” numbers shall we.
call the fleet size “50”. Asia Pacific growth rate 6%. For optimism sake we will say they grow the fleet at 6% rather then 3% and returning higher yields (which is more likely as shown with current fleet growth numbers).
10 years = 67 aircraft = 75 commands
15 years = 78 aircraft = 140 commands
Now lets take into retirements = 50 pilots over the next 10 years in JQ.
So in 10 years that will be 125 commands.
last Sydney command position 700. That’s 208 positions along. Down to position 908 in 10 years.... start date 2015.
And this assumes no Q numbers are used, and Widebody comfortable FOs stay that way for another 10 years.
if you take WB FO into account, the same position (908) is almost 20 years to a command.
eh?
A 6% growth rate in fleet size per year, starting at 50, would result in 89 aircraft after 10 years. Where did 67 come from?
In Sept 16, most junior captain was 511.
Dec 18, most junior captain is 700. Removing Q numbers (I rather doubt people will be heading from Q to JQ in the current environment), that's 115 people given the opportunity of command in the last 2.5 years. How does that mesh with your estimate of 125 in 10? Especially given there has been no fleet expansion at all in this time?
Further, at a minimum 20 FO's are off to mainline, and 2 captains, thats another 15% off the number of those ahead for someone who joined in 2016.
Indicators to me, given the possible expansion in relation to the arrival of the NEO, normal attrition and the departure of a few to mainline is of a normal 7-10 year timeframe to command from time of joining. 20 is absurd.