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Old 21st Feb 2019, 22:53
  #27 (permalink)  
Transition Layer
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Here’s my guesses...

Sunrise/380 replacement - mixture of A350-900 and -1000 (16 total)
A330 North Asian (thinner routes) international flying replaced by B787 including 787-10s - (total fleet numbers around 40)
A330 domestic transcon and triangle, plus thinner short haul international replaced by 797 - (fleet of around 30)
Traditional domestic flying and off peak triangle/transcon replaced by 737 MAX 8 (60 aircraft)

So basically the versatile 797 picks up a portion of 737 and 330 flying, and the 787 does the long thin routes it does now in addition to most of the Asian A330 stuff apart from SIN. 737 MAXs replace the oldest of the 737 fleet and the long lead time on the 797 ties in well with the retirement of the newest aircraft in the 737 fleet.

You’d end up with a Mainline fleet of approximately 140 aircraft versus 129 in 2020 when the 744s go and next tranche of 787s have arrived.

An eye watering amount of capex whichever way you look at it
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