Originally Posted by
Desert Strip Basher
I think it's a fair question and the 'odds' are there on the CAA website as to how many new licenses are awarded each year plus you can guesstimate those that are previously qualified and still actively looking as well as typical low hour recruitment for each of the majors. Most low hours will go for ANY job however, they'd be mad not to in such a small field. Preference doesn't come in to it to a great degree. Within all the noise of the numbers, where the real odds are is in will your application be seen at all? That's the real hurdle to get over.
Not arguing whether it's a fair question or not, simply saying that getting an accurate answer would be next to impossible. There are simply too many factors and unknowns to consider. Looking at number of new licenses issued can be a starting point, but then you'll have to factor in last year's licenses, and maybe even the year before that, then the people who have been laid off or looking for new jobs, etc. You'll end up with a number that is simply too questionable to be useful and so what's the point of the exercise, really?