Originally Posted by
Nurse2Pilot
How in the world would a person calculate the odds here? You may have 10,000 pilots with fATPL but not all of them will apply for a job with Airline X because some of them prefer Airline Y. A lot of other factors would determine whether an applicant goes for a job or not, so the odds can change all the time. You may start out with 1,000 to 1, but then if the airline wants first-time passers with high grades, then that may narrow it down to 400 to 1. Then you have the attitude/aptitude tests which then narrows it down to 200 to 1. And so on. So I think it's impossible to calculate the odds, but this is just from an outsider's point of view. Someone will be sure to point out if I'm wrong.
@ OP: I wonder why you want to know the odds? In my mind, who cares if the odds are 5 to 1 but you don't get the job or the odds are 10,000 to 1 but you get the job?
I think it's a fair question and the 'odds' are there on the CAA website as to how many new licenses are awarded each year plus you can guesstimate those that are previously qualified and still actively looking as well as typical low hour recruitment for each of the majors. Most low hours will go for ANY job however, they'd be mad not to in such a small field. Preference doesn't come in to it to a great degree. Within all the noise of the numbers, where the real odds are is in will your application be seen at all? That's the real hurdle to get over.