Originally Posted by
Warren Peace
I would add to that list of questions:
How many actual (real people) student pilots (not QFIs for internal 4FTS/Ascent use0 have graduated from Valley since this contract began? How many were supposed to have graduated in that timeframe?
Since we are dealing with a civvy business, lets use their terminology. This is about making Widgets, not making desks for Widget makers to sit at, not making tools for Widget making.
How many students have they sent to Coningsby, and how many should they have?
Zero Loaded courses sounds like the operation was a success, but the patient died anyway.
Warren
The Valley output is, as I understand it, about what was planned for SDSR2010 - as I said above, the SDSR2015 increase in capacity is still to deliver. However, you are right that the numbers going to Typhoon and Lightning is not enough, but you need to go and have a look at how many RAF pilots there are on the average course size of 8 pilots - I’ll give you a clue, it’s normally less than half! Lots of other colours of uniform in the photos. Is that a fault of the RAF or its commercial partners - I would suggest it is not?
The fact that not enough are going to Typhoon and Lightning for the SDSR2015 increase in squadron numbers is
exactly why measures like using the 100 Sqn T1 for more experienced pilots is being undertaken and the other measures like ENJJPT. Don’t get me wrong, the output from IV and 25 Sqns are not delivering 100% to plan (because real life is never perfect) but they are not far off from the statement of requirement demanded from SDSR2010 that is now working towards the requirement of SDSR2015 - being a pessimist myself they probably just about make that output for SDSR2020!
Again, why the delay in getting spun up for a new output requirement? So let’s look at SDSR2015:
SDSR 2015 - released in Nov 15
Budget plan for any SDSR cannot start in the Financial Year (FY) so that means...
SDSR15 Budget - releases budget lines earliest Apr 16
However, the manpower requirements need to be worked out and recruited for as well so you start recruiting/ training...
SDSR15 Manpower Plan - releases in FY16/17.
If you start recruiting against SDSR 2015 the earliest you will see output from IOT (a 6 month course) against that requirement set in say mid-2016 is the first quarter of 2017.
You then need to start them on Flying Training - but hang on, 2017 is the year of the big MFTS changeover. So you can’t manage to train everyone because of early ‘teething troubles’. Delays, holds and backlogs start in the system as the system is not configured to deliver the numbers needed.
So you have to adjust your recruiting numbers in 2018 as the backlog has built up and the previous year’s training plan has not delivered 100%. You don’t want to cease recruiting like you did in 2011 as that leaves demographic issues and also making “on/off/on” decisions in recruiting is bad for any organisation.
Now you are in 2019, the extra equipment that you have ordered in 2017 is starting to be delivered (things like spare engines, etc...) and the early issues are ironed out then the system starts to give you a better output. However, the new aircraft needed are still some way off as they aren’t sitting around ‘on the shelf’, so these don’t come for a couple of years yet.
New solutions needed to assist - Outsourced training, use of other in-service assets and spare capacity with our Allies all help.
Then SDSR2020 changes the requirement all over again...
Oh, and then BREXIT delivers ‘Global Britain’ requirements in the middle of this and we start selling Typhoons/Hawks to people that want training places to go with it. That further adds complexity and takes training places.
To me, this is the problem - the OODA loop of Defence Reviews, Procurement Cycles, Budget Cycles, Recruiting Timescales, Training Pipelines, Outflow Rates (end of engagement, medical and voluntary) and Political Shenanigans are so horribly mismatched that this becomes a classic ‘Penrose Staircase’:
Then your Lords and Masters give you 31,750 people to manage all of this and more doing a similar amount of tasking and other stuff that you used to do with 40,000-odd. Then we wonder why things aren’t perfect!