The continuing issue is that of balance.
The initial use of highly automated aircraft did not start well because of oversold capability, misplaced assumption by management and regulation, and thus poorly adapted training and use.
Over the years there has been good progress in readjusting the balance between operations and safety, but this is strained by the speed of technical improvement and changes in operational environment.
Current difficulties involve the need to regulate and operate a wide range of ‘automatic’ capabilities, yet the pace of regulation and training remain slow. This is complicated by fewer opportunities to gain experience, yet still being expected to manage the wide range of situations encountered by all aircraft types, standards of automation, and operating environment.
Overall what we have appears to be an acceptable given the current safety statistics.
However, avoiding complacency might be increasingly difficult even if a balance is maintained.
Consider a simple balance mechanism remaining in equilibrium whist each side becomes more heavily loaded - increasing demands of operations vs more safety defences. There is a point at which the mechanism itself can be overloaded on both sides, it can break - a big twang, which will not involve automation, operations, or training, instead an unforeseen effect of the operational and safety processes. Asking more of operations and training on one side and expecting greater capability at lower cost on the other, perhaps masked by the dazzle of current success and ease of assuming that the future will be the same or better.
There are fewer opportunities for safety learning, we are poor learners, and that which was learnt is quickly forgotten. Wiener’s rules should remind us of these aspects and all of the above.
Also, to be wary of an increasing opportunity for academic theories about human behaviour, automation, and training to diverge from the reality of operations, which could bias the choice of future safety options.
Does what we already have work in practice but not in theory ?
Are we, the industry thinking more like machines than humans ?