The strongest I have seen the union, in my time here anyway, was 2001. We had around 94-95% membership. We had a 92% YES vote for limited industrial action(LIA) - it was for the Maximum Safety Strategy(MSS). MSS was basically a go slow campaign.
I can tell you as I analysed the results in real time back in 2001 that the response was very underwhelming. As in, the increase in 15+min delays was barely into double digits. So whilst many talk the talk, few walk the walk. I was an FO at the time and I did my part - but the CNs I flew with mostly didn't.
Now given that incredible strength and unity, we waited another 7 years for a payrise(for B scales - none for A obviously) and even that was imposed(2008).
Now why was that? Well - three main factors.
1) the 49ers definitely took the wind out of the sails of many - especially most of the captains i flew with
2) we gradually lost membeship from mid 90s to 50% a few years later due to high subs(to support the 49ers) and the recruitment ban(obvsiously they couldn't join)
3) and by far the most important, bad timing - 9-11 happened two months after.
So why am I bringing this up - because right now we have a **** situation. Whether the yes or no vote prevails there are many suggesting they are leaving the AOA.
So that gives us point 2
Point 1 - I would suggest from survey results I have seen and talking to many, the membership is NOT as militant or cohesive as we were in 2001. So if it is NO, what is the plan?
Point 3 - what is the wild card? A downturn due to the US/China trade dispute? HNA going bankrupt with lots of pilots looking for jobs on COS18? Who knows - hopefully nothing - but seems like there is always something around the corner.
So if the plan is to vote NO fine - it is a democracy - but then have a plan for after. Or is everyone going to blame the GC and DSS? If you wanted a militant leader to take us where you wanted to go why didn't one run? If you think the majority want to be more militant, start a motion - there are plenty of whatsapp groups doing a great job of whinging, blaming the HKAOA for no results. So do something about it - or just keep blaming everyone but yourselves for the inaction you partake in.
I have heard it all before many times - everyone is a keyboard or bar warrior. But how many stand up when needed? From my own experience, especially in 2001, you would be unpleasantly surprised.
What I would urge everyone though - DON'T leave the HKAOA. Membership dropped to 50% after 2001 and we got ZERO payrises for 7 years despite record profits. So you will save 1% or so but cost yourself in career earnings.
OK - off my soapbox;-)