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Old 14th Jan 2019, 15:33
  #34 (permalink)  
Numero Crunchero
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 622
Originally Posted by Kendra689 View Post
Apparently at the Focus Night RL was advising members to vote NO. So the idiots who negotiated the deal are now recommending a NO vote but the general committee is recommending a YES vote. Amateurs.
Ha ha - really? That's what he said?

People hear what they want to.

I think what was said was more along the lines of - if you do nothing, you get a nothing result. We have done nothing but CC and TB for a few years and this is the result - a HKPA offer lower than TA16. So if the intent is to vote no and do nothing for the next 2-3 years, what will the result be? Membership survey indicates that the majority will not ramp things up - yes the vocal 5% here and on forums are willing to - but the silent majority are NOT.

We have around 200TC/STC/BTC. We have lost maybe 20-30% in 3 years. Looking at demographics we are due to lose 11 more over the next two years. So that will reduce training capacity by about 5%. KA have freed up around 38TCs but not sure how many are 330 vs 320? Our training load last year was less than a third of what it was in 2015 - so we have a lot of excess slack in training at this moment. We can more than double the training load in 2019 - I suspect the 2018 under load was much in part due to the 2 SO ops - it would have saved around 130 FO slots for them. Plus we recruited around 100 less than planned.

So will the TB work in time? We need about 50TCC/STCs or so for the minimum level of licensing(though some sims can be done by those over 65). We need around 5 or so to cover RA55/65 departures(CN/FO/SO courses) For attrition we would need maybe 30ish to replace say 100 pilots. We are due to lose around 34 more TC/STC/BTC over the next 5 years so that will reduce their current training capacity by 15%! (again assuming no one leaves the union to join training)

So is the TB the silver bullet everyone assumes?

Focus night
So what was ACTUALLY said was - if it is a yes vote, make it 51% so CX don't think it was over generous - if it is a no vote, make it 95% so they know how unhappy we are. But keep in mind - if you continue to do nothing then nothing is what you will get as it will take years for the TB to bite. You think we will keep the same resignation rate of TCs? Maybe the TCs who resigned are all those that would take the moral high ground of leaving. The rest will be on good overtime. So what rate will we lose TCs in future? What rate will others cross the line?

What was also said at a focus night was - even if the NC and GC were incompetent, the membership get to decide by a democratic vote. So please enjoy your conspiracy theories - they make for fun bar talk. I still haven't got my pony but I am hopeful.
Numero Crunchero is offline