Originally Posted by
HOBAY 3
By the time 737-10, A321, or 797 is in the fleet, how full will MEL-SYD be based an annual growth and no potential to schedule extra flights because they're already going every 10 minutes in peak? The sweet spot is 80% load factor because you need some wiggle-room for delayed passengers and seasonal variation (I hazard a guess Friday, being the busiest day of the week, would be operating low to mid 90 percentile).
Remember MEL-SYD is either the second or third busiest route in the world; we're not talking about your average sector here with only several flights per day - it needs bigger aircraft! Using your logic, ANA should sell up all those 777s and buy more 737s for HND-CTS.
More 737s isn't the answer anyway as pilots are coming up short, so in the meantime, why not redeploy the existing JQ 787s?
Qantas will definitely need to upgauge MEL-SYD. Redeploying JQ's 788s is definitely an option. But, I don't think it would be the best option. Not just because the 788 isn't a particularly efficient plane for high frequency, shorthaul flying, but also because:
- QF isn't starting from a blank slate, and has other options - for example, it has A330s that it can use on tag flights during the day, given that most of their international flying is overnight; and it could free up some of those A330s to do more domestic flying by the early 2020s if it takes more 789s or 78Js (the A330s would be nearly fully depreciated by then, so fairly cheap to run a few domestic legs a day); as it takes on more 789s for QFi, it may be possible to schedule those for some peak hour flying to swap them between MEL/SYD/BNE bases, since QF usually schedules them for early morning arrivals (depending on QFi's route decisions, of course); it has also been able to free up 737s by redeploying ex-JQ A320s to Network - I haven't looked at Network in a while, but there may be the option to do a bit more of that; and
- QF has some clearly foreseeable fleet decisions coming up over the next few years that would risk making JQ's 788s an expensive short-term move - for example, QF looks like it will order the NMA, for delivery by 2025-ish; it may well also order A320/1neos to replace the 737NG fleet - if so, it could draw on some of the existing QF Group order book to take A321neos from the early 2020s. These would both be far more efficient for the SYD-MEL route, meaning that QF would need to recover the cost of refitting the JQ788s within only a few years, and would risk being left with a fleet of 788s without crew rests (can those be retrofitted?) that would be a poor fit for QFi operations.
ANA and JAL have already committed to fleets of 777 and 787s for domestic and shorthaul international flying. That's more about slot congestion at HND than it is about the thickness of the routes. From all reports, it's not particularly efficient. But, once they have the fleet, it might not make much sense for them to change it. In any case, you'd have to expect that they'll both be lining up for the NMA to replace a good chunk of those fleets, if Boeing can make it work.
As for QF's own shortage of 737 pilots, are you suggesting that JQ's current 788 crew walk straight into the same roles at QF? If not, it'd just result in more retraining inside QF, which is a fair chunk of the cause of the current shortage...