Statistically, when will a large twin engine jet end up in the drink?

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by tdracer

BTW, as far as my handle and posting anonymously, anyone who really cared could figure out who I am in about five minutes - people who know me immediately recognize it as my nickname. Heck it's on my license plate.

We all know who and what you are... a showboat, who likes the sound of his own engine (or motor as you put it) !

You’re quoting some very small probability figures, but do they include engine shrowds and that type of thing blowing off and damaging the engine causing shutdowns, or by failure, do you mean actual internal turbine failure for example, and does engine failure include hoses blowing off necessitating manual shutdown by the pilots?

Since I retired about 18 months ago, I've been looking to 'reward myself' and buy some sort of 'super car'. As may be guessed from my handle, I'm a big car guy, and I'm especially into the engines - partly an outgrowth of my 40 years as a propulsion engineer at Boeing. Previous examples of my interest in unusual automotive engines have included the original Buick Grand Nation 3.8 liter turbo, four different RX-7 rotaries, and my current 2 liter, 240 HP/8,900 rpm Honda S2000 (some of the racing engines I drove were similarly exotic - including one that I routinely revved to 16k - it sounded wonderful ).
Starting shortly before I retired, I lusted for a Ford GT350 Shelby Mustang and it's 5.2 liter, 526 hp, 8k, flat plane 'Voodoo' naturally aspirated V8. Unfortunately I wasn't the only one, and new GT350 Mustangs were selling for ~$15k over the ~$60 list price - something I was unwilling to pay. Then, about six months ago, while getting my Ford van serviced, I walked into the Ford showroom and discovered they had two GT350 Mustangs in-stock, and were only asking for MSRP. WhooHooo! I took one for a test drive - the motor was as fantastic as I expected and it sounded glorious - but the wife objected. She didn't want me to get rid of the S2000 (she really likes that it's a convertible) - and I couldn't justify having both the Shelby Mustang and the S2000.
So, I'd been looking at various other 'super cars' - Austin Martin, Acura NSX, McLaren, etc., but to get into something I really wanted the price kept escalating yet it would still only be like my S2000 - a nice weather car that I'd be able to drive maybe 4 months per year.
Then BMW introduced a new M5. My current daily driver is a 2007 BMW 328xi (AWD) - I love it, and the AWD means I can drive it year round regardless of the weather, the only real down side is it's on the small side for long road trips (the wife doesn't exactly travel light, and we often take our two dogs along). The new M5 is AWD, significantly more room than my 328, very good handling and a twin turbo V8 producing 600 hp and sub 3 second zero to 60 gives it legitimate 'super car' creds, and if I buy an extra set of wheels fitted with proper snow tires it's a legitimate all weather, daily driver car. I've already arranged to sell the 328xi to an in-law, I keep the S2000 so my wife is happy, and I can give that snooty Tesla 'ludicrous mode' driver a scare My biggest complaint is the motor sound is muted by the turbo (yea, I'm seriously into that sound aspect)
The only problem is it'll be ~six months before my M5 arrives...