Originally Posted by
Sam Ting Wong
I find the enduring confidence of some in this forum truly remarkable.
The very same people who rejected a pay offer two years ago, after having not only achieved nothing but actually gone backwards, are still convinced they are right and victory is in sight.
Some argue the construct of the last proposal is a sign the TB and CC are working. This argument is fallacious. The question is obviously not if the training ban or CC is hurting the company, but if it is actually changing the companies' behaviour. Which it has not for years now, quite the opposite. We have seen not only a decline in value regarding the offered package, but new sickness rules, external training, an even lower package for new-joiners in 2019 etc. How to interpret that as success is to me beyond comprehension.
Of course you always can claim victory is imminent. In my opinion this is exactly what is happening. An indicator is the increasingly emotionally laden response and number of insults, here and on the HKAOA forum. One commentator even declared to rather "die standing" then to give in. Imagine that for a moment. There could not be a clearer sign that reason is lost on some.
A lot of you argue that the offer is inferior, we fought so long for it, then this would have been all for nothing etc etc. I want to be very clear: the offer is not good. I agree. But in order to decide on a yes or no vote this is totally irrelevant. As are previous sacrifices.They are sunk costs. The only thing that matters now is: do you believe there will be a better offer if we say no? If you do actually truly believe that, then by all means vote No. But if one would decide in light of past past sacrifices, one would act irrational.
An immortal myth among us seems to be the imminent or already happening mass exit of pilots at Cx, combined with problems to recruit the "right" new pilots. A simple look at the seniority list will tell you this is untrue. If someone is "actively looking" is obviously irrelevant. I know this because I do since I started flying, and everybody who reads this has done it just the same. Again, it is not the question if the company is hurt by people leaving, that may well be the case, but if it leads to change in behaviour. Which is not the case.
"You only make peace with your enemies".
Jon Snow
LOL -- no question that CX plays the long game.
Then again, so have many countries who have gotten into conflicts that have been quagmires for them and resulted in an overall loss (depending on how you choose to look at it--balance of power was a goal achieved in some of these cases so they might or might not have been losses).
IMHO, there's absolutely NO question CC and especially the TB are very much hurting--hence their priorities in the TA. They're also not getting an influx (or the ability to train what comes in quickly enough) and have chosen to contract the airline (with all of its financial lost opportunities and increased fixed costs). This particular carrier has HUGE burdens in 'spinning people up' to get qualified (compared to some other carriers) and the training process is onerous (and costly). Moreover, they haven't been getting folks they CAN spin up in through the door (a downturn might change this; unlikely except for the most desperate in that POS 18 is inferior to even many western LCC contracts--AND that's living in HKG to boot).
There's no question there's been (and will continue to be) a mass exodus -- hence the 'basings announcement' that gives glimmer of hope to the weak minded along with some non-binding numbers -- to attempt to stem the exodus without actually delivering anything (we'll see in time if there are people dumb enough to believe this).
But your point in driving THEIR behavior is well taken; perhaps they might be willing to play this type of thing until the end of time (which is a good argument to avoid the place if you're getting started in a career). Losing money, losing slots, losing the airline--perhaps these all are secondary to them saying "I'm right."
So as has been said before this is the time for industrial action (and it may well be that IA is the ONLY way to force the issue). If the union is unwilling to take IA (or if it doesn't come to pass that a competitive union is formed with enough members who WILL take IA and make a difference) things are pretty much done for no matter what happens in the future--and POS 18 will be the standard. Shoud've been obvious when POS 18 was propagated in the first place.