Thank you CT, the BITRE figures are also indicative that the aircraft is payload constrained ex YPPH.
That the under floor cargo capacity and (indeed in some cases as suggested by other posters) seats are blocked off highlight just how marginal it is.
A well structured fleet plan, financed and executed never sees aircraft needing to operate well beyond the design sweet spot.
- As dragon man highlighted the 737 east to Bali is another example where a type is operated well beyond optimum.
That the aircraft seems to not carry much freight westbound shows this route to be very limiting. Indeed the BITRE panel data supports a substantial decline in freight tonnage YOY. This ought largely be the change in aircraft type as the schedule is almost identical.
That the aircraft needs to block out seats,
not for freight but literally to reduce weight and maximise fuel uplift indicates that the route is a long way beyond optimum.
These figures don’t include pax on a Melbourne to London ticket. Load factors improve significantly (into the 90s) when included.
If the LF inclusive of the YMML passenger are into the 'high 90's' then blocking out those seats when the 'environmental variables' come into the mix is another inference that the route is beyond the aircraft.
It may be worth 'having a go', but with the caveat that if the 'environmental variables' impact upon the operation sufficiently, the customers will, as they demonstrated when Little Napoleon spent $100m moving the hub to Dubai, only to spend another $60 million moving it back, continue to opt for a short transit through Singapore. Marketing aside, the customer has a choice from Melbourne, either stop in Singapore after their flight from Melbourne and then fly to Heathrow. Or stop in Perth, then spend longer on the second leg.
As Cathay, Singapore and most of the other airlines flying through Asia to Europe found when Little Napoleon abandoned Asia, passengers will vote with their feet.
Let us see how the Northern winter develops, as Qantas will no doubt completely inform the travelling public if the schedule integrity is found wanting.