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Old 8th Dec 2018, 06:21
  #1043 (permalink)  
ORAC
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,116
Just out of interest, are you still convinced Brexit will happen? I detect a change in the air.
Working on the basis that will not be an election (I cannot see enough Conservative MPs voting either for one or against any leader in a vote of no confidence to achieve the required 66% majority in the HoC to force one early under the Fixed Term Parliament Act), I note that not a single prospective replacement leader listed in The Times today is “running” on a Remain platform.

The Times:

Party rivals vie to take power if Theresa May is forced out next week

“Boris Johnson has told allies to expect Theresa May to resign on Wednesday as leadership candidates scramble for position.

Tory MPs yesterday reported “febrile” communications from those jockeying for position ahead of a contest many now expect imminently.

Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, is believed to be making a pitch as the candidate to deliver a “managed no-deal” exit. “He’s saying ‘you know what, no deal is not ideal but at the end of the day it would be fine,’ ” said a senior Tory on the right of the party.

Sajid Javid, the home secretary, is making clear that he could not support a no-deal exit, saying that those who believe it would be an acceptable outcome are “deluded”. Both were absent from a meeting of supportive cabinet ministers called into Downing Street on Thursday to discuss the vote.

The hard Brexit wing of the Tory party, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, is determined to field a single candidate but cannot agree between Mr Johnson and Dominic Raab.

Some Conservative MPs, meanwhile, expect Amber Rudd and Michael Gove to pair up on a ticket that will appeal to the party to unite around a “Norway then Canada” Brexit.........

The prime minister has held meetings and conference calls with activists and launched leaflet campaigns to convince the party to back her Brexit deal. A survey of 1,262 Tory members, taken on Thursday and yesterday, suggests that 72 per cent reject her deal and want their MP to do the same. Twenty-six per cent want their MP to accept the deal and 2 per cent are unsure.

The scale of unhappiness with Mrs May is stark. Asked if she should resign if she loses the vote on her deal next Tuesday, 62 per cent say yes, 34 per cent say no and 4 per cent do not know. One moderate Tory MP, who has been fastidiously loyal to Mrs May in recent weeks, told The Times: “This could be the moment I put in a letter. I never thought I’d say it but it’s probably better to get it over and done with.”

Asked what sort of deal they would like to see, 16 per cent supported Mrs May’s blueprint, 23 per cent called for another attempted renegotiation, 50 per cent opted for no deal, 3 per cent said that there should be a second referendum and 7 per cent said no Brexit........

The National Convention, which consists of hundreds of the highest-ranking party officials, will meet today and hear from the pro-Brexit former cabinet ministers Priti Patel and Boris Johnson, two possible challengers. Activists are likely to make it clear to senior Tories that a future leadership contest must involve members. Mrs May never faced a vote by members in 2016 because all her rivals withdrew.........”

Last edited by ORAC; 8th Dec 2018 at 08:23.
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