Aurora Australis I have just been looking at your post (number 54) and also had a look back at a the other forecasts for your day in question. Interestingly the wind at MPA throughout the period matches the expected surface wind over the sea immediately north of the islands prior to orographic and temperature influence. What is particularly striking is that every METAR put together indicates a very steady met picture that is not at all reflected in the TAF. This suggests to me that the TAF is not worth the paper it is written on, or, that the infamous rotor is indeed sitting over MPA for almost all of that period, which would also prove the TAF to be incorrect.
Does anyone on here have any knowledge on how the met office evaluate themselves? It seems that unless someone is allowed to fly through the area then it is now impossible to evaluate it.
The last couple of years since the runway has been closed to F/W operations (don't see how that can be legal) during the periods of forecast rotors have continuously shown a matching of the TAF aligning with major sporting events on a Saturday and not to actual rotors existing.
I am ready to be corrected but I do not believe a single METAR has been issued during such a period that has displayed 340 25G35 with a TREND of VRB07. This would indicate rotors breaking from the hillside and crossing the airfield. The simple fact of the matter is that the forecasting model in these situations is not fit for purpose.