Originally Posted by
havick
ALPA just sent out an email saying they had a win on this front in that the rule isn’t going to be changed, it has at least another 5 year stay of execution
This shows that ALPA is not interested in the future of aviation in this country. Only their own pockets.
I have no doubt that eventually all the qualified and experienced pilots will end up in the majors. But there will be nobody left to fly the regionals and puddle-jumpers and Part 135 on demand, as well as nobody left to be flight instructors and the like. Maybe Corporate flying will remain because those guys have deep pockets.
What happens to the industry then? Nobody learning to fly, nobody wanting to be a commercial pilot willing to pay the huge costs and take the 7 or 8 years it will take to get qualified and experienced just to apply for that SIC job at Delta? (A couple less years if they don't want a degree, but at least 10 - 15 years to become fully qualified to be a PIC of a Boeing). It is too late to stop the hemorrhaging and too late to start to fix it. We should have started 8 years ago but that was when Congress decided to increase the requirements to a level that was unnecessary, unrealistic and ineffective, driving a spike into our own hearts. Follow the money: Why did they do this? I think the answer is obvious now.
And what about the level of experience at the top? When the present 65 yr old captains retire who will take their place? Inexperienced SICs, guys and gals who have only been sitting there for a few years because the airlines are so desperate they will take anybody with a pulse if they have 1500 hours no matter what value? And when these low experienced pilots take the command seat will they be able to pass on what they know to the next generation? I say this because I know the people the airlines are taking now. Because there are so few applicants who would have been qualified under the old system, with competitive qualifications and experience, they are taking literally anybody who meets the minimums and a lot who don't. I know guys who haven't got a multi rating or any experience multi engine and no turbine time and no ATP being offered a job at the second-level airlines (Horizon etc) and the airline will pay for their multi rating, pay for their ATP course and check ride, and put them in the right seat for less than two years with a promise of command after that and serious bonuses, they are so desperate. One of those guys told me that he only had to return a signature on a contract by fax or email to lock in the job, and he was 59 years old at the time the offer was made! He is currently doing multi engine training at the airline expense. It won't be long before the majors are doing the same.
Meanwhile the Part 135 companies are going broke because they can't compete with the salaries and conditions offered by the Part 121 companies and many cannot offer SIC training because they fly single pilot. They cannot put bare 500 hour pilots or even 1500 hour pilots into those jobs without seeing their airplanes damaged or destroyed by the lack of experience and anybody they do employ is only taking a place-hold job in preparation for moving up to the airlines, and to the big freight companies. Turnover and training is intense in the 135 companies and it is impossible to find instructors, even ground instructors.
A total mess, a dog's breakfast, a swill. No longer fun, not knowing if the company you work for will even be in business tomorrow. I advise newbies to hurry up and start training because there will be no jobs for them in about five years after the smaller outfits have gone belly up.
Without those 135 companies, and 91 as well, there will be no pool of qualified people for the airlines to dip into and in the not too distant future I forecast that there will be no aviation industry in this country, at least as we know it now. The other countries are not hamstrung by this stupid 1500 hour rule and they are training gangbusters to maintain their ranks. We are not, because we cannot even find instructors or keep them more than a year until they get 1500 hours and disappear. I also forecast that we will be hearing lots of different accents in the US airspace as those pilots are attracted to the airlines here in the USA who cannot find qualified or experienced pilots among the US ranks. Better learn some Chinese and Korean, chaps!
We brag about our safety record. We are at a pinnacle in safety right now. But if we take away our advantage in experience by replacing our pilots with those who have only the bare minimum legal requirements the accident rate must go up. We are already seeing it with the increase in incidents and history shows this is a good indicator of trouble to come.
So the Congress and the FAA have got their plan to destroy aviation moving right along, supported by ALPA, and the rest of us, head in the sand or stunned at the stupidity, can do nothing about it.