A couple of AOA and MCAS details to consider:
1. AOA vanes measure the angle of the airflow at the location of the sensor. The fuselage distorts the flow such that the vane angle does not match the free air AOA seen by the airplane. There is a conversion from degrees of vane to degrees of body AOA. Typically one degree of vane motion corresponds to about half a degree of body AOA change. I'm not sure if the AOA data we have seen here in PPRUNE is in vane degrees or body degrees.
2. When reviewing flight data and trying to determine the status of MCAS and the cutout switches it is important to realize the following:
- MCAS has an authority limit of at most 2.5 degrees of stabilizer (less as speed/Mach increase).
- MCAS will not move the stabilizer an increment more than its authority unless it has been reset by either pilot manual stabilizer trim command or engagement followed by disengagement of the autopilot.
- MCAS would not be reset as a result of mechanical manual stabilizer trim (i.e., pilot physically turning the trim wheel by hand)
Some of the time periods where seeing no automatic nose down trim might lead one to think that the cutout switches have been activated, it could actually be the case that MCAS has already put in its allowed stabilizer motion increment and has not be reset via manual trim and therefore will not move the stabilizer any more regardless of how long the time period is.
Another possibility is that during some of the time periods where there are no automatic trim increments the crew may have been able to engage the autopilot in which case MCAS would be disabled. There would, however, likely be some automatic stabilizer trim with autopilot engaged as fuel burn would require.
With the cutout switches activated, the only means of trimming is via the mechanical trim wheel. It is likely that pilot activated trim via the wheel would not be at the same rate as electric motor trim (and might not be at a continuous, constant rate). Knowing that it might be possible to figure out which stabilizer motions were likely not via electric motor and thus must have been via pilot use of the mechanical trim wheel.