Originally Posted by
AGBagb
It's worth noting - especially in the sea of speculation above! - that, so far as I am aware, there's no specific news on the FDR data either.
Not so, 69 hours of flight data downloaded, including the accident flight, according to statement by Haryo Satmiko (NTSC). Just Google "Haryo Satmiko 69 hours" (without the quotes) and pick a news source you trust from the results.
Nothing that Boeing or the FAA have said so far is explicitly linked to the FDR for this airframe. The FAA directive could be part-based on the FDR data; but it could equally - imho - be based on what is known about the flight from ATC data and communications, plus paperwork and witness statements about the prior difficulties that this particular a/c had recently encountered. So, previous flight crews could all have said that, having gone to manual flight following sensor disagree alerts, they then encountered strong and unexpected nose-down stab trim, uncommanded by them.
There is fairly specific information released on a 20deg AOA disagree on the previous flight _after_ AOA sensor replaced, but the leaked logs don't mention AOA at all, so if that hasn't come from FDR data those previous pilots must have analysed it at the time and determined not just AOA disagree but 20deg, but then "forgotten" to report it and reported a UAS/STS issue instead, and then remembered the AOA issue and reported it to the investigation - but only after the FDR was found...
Well, could be that way, but my money is on the 20deg came from the FDR, and I reckon Occam's is too.