The new fuel rules - CASA fail
CASA have now made our fuel rules substantially similar to ICAO's. But, it appears ICAO don't understand what variable reserve is all about. Perhaps CASA too, don't understand what variable reserve is all about.
The requirements for carriage of variable reserve (VR) have been relaxed so significantly that there now will be very little VR loaded - in some cases, none at all.
This means that, in cases where pilots wish to depart with the minimum legal fuel, there is a high chance that they will be dipping into their fixed reserves, and therefore, having to declare a fuel emergency.
For aircraft <5700 Kg, doing private, aerial work or training, there is no requirement for any variable reserve at all. A minimum fuel departure in this category then, has a 50% chance of dipping into the fixed reserves - and having to make the "MAYDAY MAYDAY MAYDAY FUEL" call.
For RPT and charter on <5700 Kg, if the aircraft is turboprop, then 5% VR must be loaded, which lowers the chance to about 25% (rough estimate) of dipping into the fixed reserves following a minimum fuel departure. For the pistons, there must be 10% VR, so the chance would be 10-15% (rough estimate).
For turbines >5700 Kg, all operations, they must load 5% VR. My rough estimate of the chances they will have to dip into the fixed reserves is 25% following a minimum fuel departure.
I would estimate the overall chance for any given minimum-fuel departure to be about 1 in 3 likelihood of dipping into the fixed reserves.
How many minimum-fuel departures does Australia have on the average day? 500? At 1 in 3, that makes for over 160 mayday calls per day.