Originally Posted by
Geosync
I think it will be a "2 steps forward, one step back" path, like autos. The tech will reach a point where proof of concept looks stellar. Drones humming along, model of efficiancy. Then one plummets to earth in a fireball, killing multiple humans, and the fleet is grounded. Insurance companies demand a fullproof software fix since they're defending multi million dollar lawsuits, and the media attacks this new exotic death from above. Then slowly the public gets used to the occasional crash, and the tech gets amazing, and it becomes the norm. But that's over a 15 to 20 year span we're talking about.
Hopefully the regulators are on the ball and the software / hardware / system design and implementation is up to a safety critical standard before it's allowed to operate. The omens are encouraging - a CAA representative attending a drone conference sometime ago underlined this requirement, so they're definitely on the right page.
What's happening in the auto space, particularly in the USA, is shameful; essentially they're proposing to put it out there and hope, and blame the human if it crashes. Given that people already treat Tesla's autopilot as fully self driving when the company says it isn't, one cannot be as optimistic.