Originally Posted by
TartinTon
The long ground time between the STN flights is crying out for some infill PSO or not!
The question is whether there's a destination from LDY which would reliably generate enough revenue in the middle of the day to cover the direct operating costs of an Embraer. The fact that the available time is in the middle of the day means that there will be relatively little business traffic (and therefore higher fares) - I'd imagine that most business people who want a full day at their destination will have set out in the Belfast direction early in the morning.
I don't have Embraer operating costs to hand but I would guesstimate that the direct operating costs of a one-way sector from LDY to somewhere in the UK would be of the order of £2200-£2700 (not counting aircraft ownership cost, but counting maintenance costs).
So where should the aircraft fly to which can guarantee 30 seats filled on every flight at an average of at least £80 (before APD and airport charges) each way, or 40 seats filled on every flight at £60 or more (before APD and airport charges) each way? (By the way, these are just breakeven numbers - they don't take account of marketing and promotion expenses, for example.)
I've assumed a UK point as the most obvious destination. Of course the aircraft could theoretically go further afield, for example to Paris (no slots in AMS these days). I imagine that'd be a popular leisure destination. But the operating costs for the longer sector will be higher - perhaps £3000+ per sector. Are there really 30 people per flight willing to pay an average of £100 + APD + airport charges per one-way rather than driving down to BFS and hopping on easyJet?
There is a widely known saying that an aircraft is only making money when it's in the air. That's true. But the converse is not true: just because an aircraft is in the air doesn't mean it's making money. VLM in their prime used to do quite well operating morning and evening peak rotations to LCY and leaving many of their F50s parked up during the day at various outstations. I'd be fairly certain that Bmi will have priced up the PSO contract based on the aircraft only being used for STN and on the assumption that it is unused in the middle of the day. I'm sure that in the meantime they will have been pitched options for increasing the LDY aircraft utilisation. The fact that they are not flying anywhere in the middle of day doesn't mean the idea hasn't crossed their mind, just that they have been unable to identify a destination with a reasonable chance of profitability.