@magplug. Thank you. You’re right. I agree that we should be careful being definitive, particularly based on one such image, which is why I included IMO. The AAIB will have access to far more than I do, although final assessments are normally unsurprising. I’m therefore happy for readers to take what I say with a pinch of salt.
Risking going off at a tangent, I had run my thoughts past a friend who works with composites for F1 and aircraft. He agreed with me, albeit based only on the image with all the restrictions you point out.
At least the image puts to bed a wild goose chase (hitting one would not cause that damage).:-)