Originally Posted by
Gustosomerset
So speculation as ever but given what has been observed so far it seems most likely that:
a) The aircraft was high enough at the apparent point of failure to avoid hitting the TR on any part of the stadium or other fixed object
b) Therefore the failure was likely caused either by something else airborne hitting it - or some sort of separate mechanical failure
Assuming the mechanical failure option, (in the absence of any clear evidence of another airborne object) one thing that still puzzles me is why the pilot chose to lift to such an apparently unnecessary height before attempting to transition into forward flight. Could it be that he was aware of some sort of anomaly on the lift out that made him want to gain extra altitude to have the option of an autorotation away from the confined space of the take-off site? If there was a problem near the ground he would presumably have just put it straight back down - so whatever it was presumably occurred somewhere between the height at which he would normally have transitioned (200ft?) and the height he eventually reached (1000ft?).
To give this theory any validity, there would have to be some sort of anomaly warning (sound/vibration/warning system?) that would encourage the pilot to believe that continuing to gain height enough to attempt a safe autorotation was his best (or only) option. What might this have been?
1000' ??? who said they got to 1000'? no way was it even half way to 1000' What you may like to focus on, which has been said here a number of times before, is that everything up until the point which appears to be his TDP, appears normal. It also appears that if he is following the correct AW169 departure technique (and we have no reason to believe otherwise as there is video evidence) then he will be yawed slightly left (if sat in the right hand seat) keeping the landing site in his view then just before transitioning to forward flight, will straighten the aircraft. (slightly movement in yaw to the right of probably up to 20 degrees or so)
It would also seem at this point that something departs the aircraft, but i'm not talking about the white speck seen at around 45 secs of the video doing the rounds, but the other white flat object which appears to depart the scene travelling up and left at approx 53-55 secs. (part of tail rotor blade?) I will try to provide a link to a youtube video showing this.
The media shyt regarding falling 'into a dead mans curve' (as if it is some mystical hell-like place that exists) is just laughable, and all of the so-called 'experts' that have been wheeled out and given their views, well, they've all either been seriously misquoted, or all talk absolute bollox to some extent. It's just as well that in the UK we have some of the best accident investigators in the world working on this. Some of the theories put forwards have been sensible and from the usual pro pilots on this forum, but the non-pilots who all suddenly become armchair experts do nothing but embarrass themselves when they put fingers to keyboards.
I think those of us who fly helicopters every day for a living, and have at least had some experience of tail rotor failures in simulators etc, will have a pretty good idea of some of the possible causes of this tragic accident, but unfortunately what we don't have access to are the facts except as shown in grainy videos.
So the media outlets will be trawling forums, and asking these crap-and-past-it experts for opinions based on poor real world knowledge, and a serious lack of facts. Again its a sad case of not letting the truth and fact get in the way of a good newspaper-selling story.