Originally Posted by
LeadSled
Dragon man,
So, what about all the work going on in the desert?? No comment??
Maybe OJT is one of them??
I don't know if it is, or exactly how many are on the way back, it is more than one.
Tootle pip!!
There will be no jets brought back from the desert.
Some crystal ball gazing. Whilst the dead stop date for the 744 is somewhat fixed (end of 2020 and wouldn't surprise me if it coincides with the 100th anniversary on 16 November) the reality is that this date could be moved either way quite quickly. Note that as at the Nov 2020 date the Qantas fleet has all fourteen 787s in it. So either there is a reduction of four airframes to do the flights the last retiring 744s were doing or there are likely to be more 787s due to arrive from early 2021. I don't discount the possibility of the 787s actually 'slow flying' in the lead up to the last of the 744 replacements also and being able to ramp up their hours to cover the loss. My gut says more 787s in 2021 with Sunrise jets due to come on line 12-18 months later in 2022.
At the moment it's likely the 744 fleet could survive with all the Captains and F/Os currently on it staying until the last flight if they choose to do so. The last four jets (needed to fly a HND- SYD- JNB- SYD service) can be heavy crewed with Captains and F/Os. Wouldn't surprise me though if they RIN S/Os before that or at least hope they take promotion to F/O on the 737 for the newbies, or the A330 or 787* for those who've been around a while. As at November 2020 we start the RIN process for Captains and F/Os and we'll know a bit more about aeroplane orders beyond that time from mid to late next year.
I do strongly suspect that any decision to retire the 744s earlier than November 2020 will come with a commensurate acceleration of 787 arrivals and potentially additional airframe orders due by the end of 2020 also. If this occurs the RIN process simply starts earlier than November 2020.
When the RIN occurs the top 35ish 744 Captains not retiring can displace to the A380 if they so choose. The remaining 30-35ish won't have the seniority to displace to the A380 and either retire or go to the redeployment positions available on the 787 (or heck, even displace to the A330!
). Logistically, if Qantas wanted to shrink capacity in the short term this RIN is possible anytime from January next year given the numbers of 787s due to arrive over the subsequent 12 months. I don't reckon this is capacity reduction is likely... yet.
Anyway, lots of water to go under the bridge on this one. We'll see how it plays out.
(*Rumours of vertical promotion coming back for 787. Very second to third hand info though).