The sky is not falling in at QCA/B/C - and by the sounds of it if it were, there would be some baskets to gather it up in.
Yes, fuel is rising, but QF have done well with hedging such that it's not (yet) going to have a major impact. Arguably, they are getting a huge operational hedge by replacing the 747s with 787s, even if in their config the benefit is only a few %.
Hedging will help to lower the impact on cash flow, as will suspending dividends, which I expect will happen soon given the tax losses from previous years have been reversed and so they will not have any more franking credits. As it is, they have managed to use cash to buy their last few 787-9s, and they are buying a stack of 737s, A320s and A330s as they come off-lease, which the credit ratings agencies like. The debt has been but, is now at a lower rate, and a longer maturity, and the rating is at investment-grade. So even assuming that they have to quickly renew everything, they would have lessors and banks falling over themselves to give Qantas attractive rates.
Best of all, the biggest irritant for them - Virgin - are just getting their heads above water financially and gave away their cost advantage as the Borg took them upmarket. Both carriers took hits in the capacity war, but Virgin came off second-best and had to have its balance sheet revamped a couple of times. And if the rumours of HNA seeking an out are true, while Etihad would probably exit at the right price, things aren't going to get easier on the other side of the fence any time soon.
So, in summary...chill, Winston.
Clearly,
UBS,
S&P,
The ICCT ,
and Roger Montgomery need to settle.
Despite every other airline having re-equipped almost without exception a decade ago, QF know something everybody else doesn't!
As Mr Montgomery mused;
In addition to benefiting from cheaper fuel, cash flows have also been boosted by a strategy that has allowed the fleet to age. As I said earlier, the most expensive part of running an airline is replacing old, cheap planes with newer and more expensive models.
Airlines cannot escape this capital expenditure lest passengers jump to competing airlines with fancier entertainment offerings and more comfortable seats, bars and beds. You can call it a disciplined approach to capital spending or you could say the board might prefer to
see the share price go up now, maximise share price-related incentives for current management and leave the reality of replacing planes to the next CEO.
Mr Montgomery is already half right, it is a new Chairman's problem.