Ok, I’ll wade back in to this discussion. There have been some excellent points made in this thread and I agree and support all that has been said. As professional aviators we can often offer up some legitimate speculation with the immediate evidence at hand as to likely scenarios and contributing factors. More often than not those initial thoughts bear some striking similarities to the final conclusions.
As for journalists seeking to separate fact from fancy it has been my observation that (at least on this continent) this is becoming less and less the case. In the haste to “scoop” the story in today’s 24-hour news outlets there is an apparent need to find a quote or that bit of information that others don’t yet have. Then other news agencies quote the information that “network xyz or wire service 123” is saying blah blah blah. It then becomes a vicious circle and in effect a feeding frenzy. Unfortunately, it becomes very difficult to correct erroneous information down the road. Human nature such that it is, we (using the global we) often formulate opinion and decision on first impression.
On a recent thread I chastised a contributor for raising the specter of pilot error without seemingly much in the way of evidence to back that up. I am sure that the contributor did so with no malice but it got my back up. Why you might ask? Fourteen years ago a very close friend of mine died tragically along with his crew and passengers. The crew was made to blame almost before the flames were extinguished by not only their colleagues but also media and members of the public alike. It was only after a thorough investigation did it come to light that the crew was indeed and irrefutably blameless. But even today, fourteen years later it is firm in many peoples minds that my friend really pooched it that night. About eighteen months ago there was even a small reference in a media story citing them as an example, among others, of pilot error.
Speculation is something that will continue on here, in crew rooms, in the pub and in the media. It can and often will serve a useful purpose. But I think back fourteen years when I was one of those colleagues asking, Geeze guys what the hell were you thinking? That is the baggage that I bring to the discussion.