Originally Posted by
shamrock7seal
I think this is a very well considered summary of the possible outcome tbh. The pax forecast for 2018 reveals your exact point. They are on course for 2m by the skin of their teeth (Not 2.1m) so the forecast is already 100k behind. That will quickly gather momentum if nothing new for S19 is confirmed soon.
No way can any of the planned work in this masterplan be completed by 2019, how fast can they realistically get planning permission and then complete construction? Even 2020 may be pushing it.
Question - Doesn't the current terminal with all it's limitations have a maximum capacity of 3m? I think I read that somewhere sometime. However it is pretty damn cramped even now from the passenger journey perspective.
My take on possible timescales - stand re-configuration could happen quickly ie 5 down to 4 with stand 1 being kept for the time being as this is where terminal expansion will happen, 2-5 converted to 3 A320 size ready for ops. With the consultation not due to expire until end October and then the ratification of the plan, actual planning being submitted wouldn't be until early 2019. By the time this hopefully gets the green light, we will be in to S19 peak season and cannot see any major disruption at this point. Therefore we are realistically looking at W19 for runway extension, taxiway and car parks to be constructed with a LCC commencing in April/May 2020 ready for summer season. Of course all this if anything could happen sooner or later and this forum has been talking long and hard for many years in the vain hope!!