Originally Posted by
The Nutts Mutts
Coming back to the passenger number predictions from the surface access strategy, I've done some back-of-a-fag-packet maths.
2018 is predicted to be 2.1mppa.
2019 is predicted to be 2.9mppa.
Where will the 800k extra pax come from?
Being generous and giving Lolo 100k pax over the peak summer months for their expanded programme, that leaves 700k to find.
Assuming nothing new happens for the remainder of the winter 18-19 period, that would leave 9 months to realise the increase.
I reckon the airport would need 8 180-seater rotations (in and out, so 16 movements) a day from April 2019 to see the pax numbers predicted. One rotation every two hours with an A320 from somewhere.
While the aircraft movements may be achievable, I don't see how the car parking availability could cope with a sudden increase of that magnitude, the car parks are fairly full at the moment. Plus terminal capacity, security etc. It would be a big jump from today's operation.
What I now think has happened is that the surface access strategy, looking at it, was written last year when the current masterplan was in the design stage, having been hinted at back then by Dave Lees. There may then have been delays in publishing the masterplan, so the plans for airport expansion have all been subsequently delayed too. I think they may have been planning to begin the expansion this winter, starting with the runway extension, and then see either a loco base or a large increase in inbound routes in 2019.
As it's worked out, I think time may be too short to see the work get completed as it may have originally been envisaged, and so in my view we're much more likely to see expansion of the sort predicted in the surface access strategy happen in 2020, assuming they actually build the runway extension.
More worthless speculation from me, sorry if anyone's time has been wasted reading this!
I think this is a very well considered summary of the possible outcome tbh. The pax forecast for 2018 reveals your exact point. They are on course for 2m by the skin of their teeth (Not 2.1m) so the forecast is already 100k behind. That will quickly gather momentum if nothing new for S19 is confirmed soon.
No way can any of the planned work in this masterplan be completed by 2019, how fast can they realistically get planning permission and then complete construction? Even 2020 may be pushing it.
Question - Doesn't the current terminal with all it's limitations have a maximum capacity of 3m? I think I read that somewhere sometime. However it is pretty damn cramped even now from the passenger journey perspective.