Originally Posted by
castleford tiger
Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.
OK This bit that you quote that is correct is a 50/50 split. The 13 and 12m also look pretty close.
Lets look at Holidays that I estimate will be 3 million this year up from 2.5m which was up from 1.8 the year before ( added new bases.)
So yes it may have taken 11 years from the start to get to 3 m but the rolling figure I have used to get to 50% of the market is based on
3 m in current year 3.5 m then 4.375 then 5.25 and finally 6 million.
Adding 20 or 25% to bigger numbers rapidly get you there.
Look at 1.87m to 3m in just two seasons well on the way to doubling the base figure.
I disagree that other companies are growing ,but agree the market maybe expanding a little. TCG have been hammered by JET2 holidays.
At Faro its spot a TUI or TCG rep.
Looking at growth the company have predicted for summer 19 I think my 3.5m is on track.
As i said I understood from the AGM there WILL be a new order for frames BEFORE we need to replace the 757 fleet. I think 30 would not shock me.
I think the wet lease number will increase as we see growth. Leeds has the TITAN 757 doing 4 sectors a day.
The key part to this is the jump from 1.87 to 3m in 2 years. All this was facilitated by the addition of BHX/STN and also off the back of the 34 737-8MG's. There is nothing like this on the cards for the next few years (i.e. no new large bases or large amount of new aircraft joining the fleet). so i would have guessed no more than 1/2 m extra hols pax per year, meaning 6m is hit in 6 years. Still not a bad performance.
As for the market, while TUI would stay about the same and Thomas Cook drop slightly further, the growth would be from other areas such as Expedia/On The Beach. Also there's competition from BA holidays. Even U2 are starting up their holidays product as well though their no different to Expedia & co...
Moving on from all that though, the prospect of a new fleet order to replace the 757's is intriguing. Since they already have their B738's, we'd be looking on the larger side. Initial thoughts would be the Max9/10 or the A321neo filled with around 220 to 230 seats, similar to the 235 seats the 757's operate. Or do they make the jump to widebodys as they have done with the leased A330's. The smallest widebody would surely come into consideration as well (A332/A338) or B788. They'd probably be able to get around 350 seats in each which could probably be sustained on a decent amount of routes. Also opening up the prospect of Long-Haul operations too (tying in with the TCX rumour).
Interesting times ahead, and im sure they'll make a huge success of it, regardless of what 'it' is