Jet2-5

[castleford tiger]

Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.

While i believe their Holiday market will continue to grow tremendously, the 50% in 4 years is a bit unrealistic.
Even if the market stayed the same size at 12m, which is highly unlikely, Jet2 would need 6m, So they'd need to double their current volume of holiday passengers. Bearing in mind it's taken the 11 years to reach the 3m mark as well
(it's Maths time...)
Jet2Holidays are around 50% of all seats sold (grapevine rumour). and based on around 13m seats currently on sale. Assuming 12m are actually sold (Loads of about 92% which sound about right).
50% of 12m = 6m holidays seats = 3m return trips [so stands to reason that if you double the number of seats on sale, you'll double the volume of holidays passengers.
This also means you'd need close to double to existing fleet so we'd be taking around 180-200 planes (including any leased in like the A330) and taking onboard several mid-life 738's isn't going to facilitate this.
WIth all that said, the more likely scenario is that other companies would grow as well, so by the time Jet2 were to hit 6m holidays customers, the market would probably have grown as well to around 18m. This would leave a market share of 33%.
(end of maths time)

Sorry you caught me on a bad day and while you bring useful info, i needed to clarify your thought. I fully believe Jet2 can achieve great things. They'll definitely have TUI in their sight who have a share of around 44% (based on current ATOL) and it's that share that all for the taking

OK The bit that you quote that is correct is a 50/50 split. The 13 and 12m also look pretty close.
Lets look at Holidays that I estimate will be 3 million this year up from 2.5m which was up from 1.73 the year before ( added new bases.) and 1.22 then 1.0m then 830,000 in 2014
So the number doubled in just two seasons 1.22 to 2.5m and trebled in 4 from 830,000. That's EXCLUDING current year.
So growth has been 20%/22%40%/40% and current year we estimate 20%
That's pretty impressive.
So yes it may have taken 11 years from the start to get to 3 m but the rolling figure I have used to get to 50% of the market is based on
3 m in current year 3.5 m then 4.375 then 5.25 and finally 6 million. so 17% next year then 22% then 20% and finally 15%
Adding 20 or 25% to bigger numbers rapidly get you there.
Look at 1.87m to 3m in just two seasons well on the way to doubling the base figure.

I disagree that other companies are growing ,but agree the market maybe expanding a little. TCG have been hammered by JET2 holidays.
At Faro its spot a TUI or TCG rep.
Looking at growth the company have predicted for summer 19 I think my 3.5m is on track.
As i said I understood from the AGM there WILL be a new order for frames BEFORE we need to replace the 757 fleet. I think 30 more would not shock me.
I think the wet lease number will increase as we see growth. Leeds has the TITAN 757 doing 4 sectors a day.

We have totally ignored a new base and just assumed that growth will come from current bases.
best tiger