Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.
While i believe their Holiday market will continue to grow tremendously, the 50% in 4 years is a bit unrealistic.
Even if the market stayed the same size at 12m, which is highly unlikely, Jet2 would need 6m, So they'd need to double their current volume of holiday passengers. Bearing in mind it's taken the 11 years to reach the 3m mark as well
(it's Maths time...)
Jet2Holidays are around 50% of all seats sold (grapevine rumour). and based on around 13m seats currently on sale. Assuming 12m are actually sold (Loads of about 92% which sound about right).
50% of 12m = 6m holidays seats = 3m return trips [so stands to reason that if you double the number of seats on sale, you'll double the volume of holidays passengers.
This also means you'd need close to double to existing fleet so we'd be taking around 180-200 planes (including any leased in like the A330) and taking onboard several mid-life 738's isn't going to facilitate this.
WIth all that said, the more likely scenario is that other companies would grow as well, so by the time Jet2 were to hit 6m holidays customers, the market would probably have grown as well to around 18m. This would leave a market share of 33%.
(end of maths time)
Sorry you caught me on a bad day and while you bring useful info, i needed to clarify your thought. I fully believe Jet2 can achieve great things. They'll definitely have TUI in their sight who have a share of around 44% (based on current ATOL) and it's that share that all for the taking