Originally Posted by
ExtraShot
This Pilot shortage was well on its way back in 07/08, then the GFC hit and it saved their bacon big time.
The GFC was a definite factor, however, the ICAO moved to extend the mandated retirement age from 60 to 65 in Dec 2006, and the US implemented it in 2009. That is really what saved their bacon.
The industry response? Extend and pretend, capturing the value of the age extension through reduced training costs. Almost ZERO in the way of investment to overcome the demographic challenges that would inevitability occur. Demographics is about the closest thing there to a sure bet, there is no uncertainty about when someone will have a birthday at a particular age. You can model the best case outcome for a cohort to reach mandated retirement age with a good degree of accuracy.
Once again, extension to 67 is proposed, however, there is likely to be an exponential decline in pilots who can hold a medical post 65 and make it all the way to 67. There are going to be tiny incremental gains in pilot number should that come to pass. That is before the "will to continue" is taken into account.
Unfortunately for the managers, the demographic dividend is now about to become an enormous liability for which they are completely unprepared.