67% command upgrade failure rate! That’s ridiculous.
I think you need to put this into context. First of all the guys that failed aren't actually on the upgrade course, they're being assessed for upgrade, so they really haven't failed. You might think I'm arguing semantics but the reasons for not being put through to the next stage could be far less damaging for an FO's future than if he failed the actual upgrade course.
Over the last 5 or 6 years we have had many FOs join,
NOT ALL, that had a fraction of the experience that was seen historically and I think this is starting to show. AJX stick to their side of the bargain and begin assessment at around 3.5 years but some of these guys are just not ready. I can't think of any other large airline that would assess someone for the command of a 767-sized aircraft after such a relatively short time and certainly not with the experience some of them have. I haven't looked at the list of those who didn't make it through the latest assessment but a quick squint at who I think would be in the frame would certainly make me think twice about 2 or 3 of them and it's not even my place to do so.
There will be others who don't get upgraded because of previous indiscretions. You may well say that's unfair but you only have to read this thread and realise that the Japanese are not good at confrontation but they don't forget, either. I'm not talking about genuine mistakes but deliberate actions which may have embarrassed AJX. I am quite sure they put a big X on that first assessment but you'd never get to actually know the reason because......see point about confrontation.
I feel sorry for those who don't get through the assessment but also feel AJX are setting unrealistic expectations. They won't change the 3.5 years because that is what they've done from the first FO to upgrade and at least we should give them credit for abiding by this. Many pilots will see this opportunity to upgrade very early and it has been a major selling point for encouraging people to join but it is a sad fact of life that some are simply not ready when it comes to upgrade time and just don't have the experience to fall back on when it's going for a can of worms and they need to be in charge. There would be huge dissent if they changed the system to assess at more realistic times e.g. base it on experience, with 3.5 years as the minimum, but if they continue to do what they do then we will continue to see some guys assessed as 'not suitable yet'.
Do not think, for one minute, that I am forgiving of certain of the Japanese assessors. One is a malicious XXXXX and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near an aircraft, let alone a management position where he has such a say in the future of the FOs. The trouble is, we always seem to have one and as soon as he goes we get another.....usually just the one. I can't argue sensibly for any FO that is assessed badly by someone who just really doesn't like anything in life, especially Gaijin FOs. Luckily they are very few and far between and, usually, saner minds prevail.