Engines,
Looking at the Tempest cartoon (which is all it really is), it seemed to me to be a reasonable way to catch politicians' mindspace and thereby make a positive case for a UK industry base, before the default becomes otherwise. We can all see that a clutch of 'entrant' nations have advanced 'heavy' fighter design and/or manufacture (D&M) aspirations (Turkey, India, South Korea, Japan, Brazil), plus of course incumbents of Sweden, UK, Germany, France, China & Russia & USA. Given that Brazil is out of the game now, and discounting China & Russia for obvious reasons, the question becomes how many programmes can reasonably get through to a Final Investment Decision from what is left. I would say Germany+France will; USA will; and perhaps one other. Tempest is bidding to become that one other, as there could easily only be two. If you then compare the UK's list of industrial capabilities, plus the desirable attributes (I hesitate to say requirements/specification), and add in the corresponding bits of the other D&M nations, plus the nations that will have purchaser needs (but not D&M), you might just about be able to pull together a business case. It seems to me that is what they are trying to pull together.
Programmatically:
- suits consortium build
- capable of frequent through-life technology insertion (spare space, spare electrical power)
- affordable initial costs
- but high-end
- so likely spiral development
Vehicle:
- twin engine
- long range / long endurance / large capacity
- low observable
- supercruise
- evolve towards two versions: one manned single seat; the other unmanned (you can see how this might solve some of the tech transfer issues)
- big radar
There is the outside chance that, if this is successful, it could actually get taken up by the USA. That's a real wild card, but their long range penetrating fighter requirement isn't a million miles from some of the attributes we see here and you could see the losers in their programme wanting a second bite of the cherry.
Given that the QEC has gone STOVL/STORL and that the F35's programme life will pretty much match the QEC design life, there is no need for UK to have a second shipborne fighter on the books. Nor do any of those potential partner nations have a real need (or ability to host) a heavy twin-engined fighter on a carrier. (the best thing India could do is admit they are going down the wrong design pathway, and instead licence build the QEC).
Finding the sweet spot between the long range/endurance needs of Japan & South Korea & India, and the shorter range needs of Turkey & Sweden will be an issue. Getting enough of them to sign on early enough to get the quantities required for this to have a business case is the issue. And being able to get enough capability into the initial stages of the programme without the upfront costs blowing out of control / yet without the capability achieved being so far below the capability desired. However you cut it this has got to be at least as good as the best of F22+F35 or it won't pass the laugh test in the buyers.
Interesting to watch.
regards, pp