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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:05
  #97 (permalink)  
Gnadenburg
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Eden Valley
Posts: 2,154
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From here it looks like Indonesia witha radical government in the future. maybe makes some sense
Actually, Indonesia's forecast GDP growth over the next 20 + years is so significant, a stable government, with sensible military procurement, is as big a game changer for Australia's strategic environment as a destabilised Indonesian leadership and all its potential internal horror. Indonesia will have money to run a modernisation program not unlike, though on a smaller scale, as the PLA. I'd argue, that as per RAND studies on air superiority, stealth fighter numbers would become critical for the RAAF to hold its own against a rapidly expanding Indonesia- if a threat. A stable, growing Indonesia though, is more likely to be rubbing up against conflicting interest with the Chinese in the South China Sea. Military planners in Australia know this and it is not unlikely for the former state of "Kamaria" to have shared regional interests and military alliances pushing toward 2030.

China's maritime Silk Route is dependant on the Malacca Straits. Alternative routes are via the Sunda and Lombok straights in the Indonesian archipelago and are particularly vulnerable to Australian and American airpower in northern bases. China's reliance on energy and trade is massive and it is yet to possess a capability to break a blockade from a medium power- even Singapore say- in interdicting its maritime routes at these choke points.

The government has invested in an air force that can lift the capabilities of others in the region with its capabilities including JSF. It is also has the ability to bolt-on to US capabilities offering a fair commitment to our alliance. The RAAF is also in a position to be expanded if needed over a reasonable time-frame of any unforeseen threats emerging. Australia is not toast before breakfast for the PLA.

Last edited by Gnadenburg; 6th Aug 2018 at 10:51.
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